Technical Analysis – AUDJPY tests swing peak, putting 6-month down move into question

Technical Analysis – AUDJPY tests swing peak, putting 6-month down move into question

Technical Analysis – AUDJPY tests swing peak, putting 6-month down move into question

Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

AUDJPY buyers are currently encountering a crucial resistance level at 74.48, after surpassing the Ichimoku cloud. Backing the short-term positive picture is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which has adopted an upwards sloping demeanor and the Tenkan-sen, which has fulfilled a bullish crossover of the Kijun-sen line.

Also supporting the improving positive outlook, are the signals from the short-term oscillators. The stochastics have ascended into the overbought zone but the %K has yet to cross below the red %D line, suggesting that advances are still in place. Moreover, the MACD has distanced itself into the bullish territory and above its red trigger line, while the RSI is approaching the 70 level.

If the bulls manage to violate the 74.48 swing peak of September 13, the 75.32 resistance level could provide some downside pressure, which is the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 80.70 to 69.94. Another push higher, could test the 200-day SMA presently at 76.00 before traders focus turns to the 61.8% Fibo of 76.60.

In the negative scenario, if the 74.48 level restricts further gains, first support comes from the 38.2% Fibo of 74.05, and then the 100-day SMA beneath at 73.73. Lower, the Ichimoku cloud at the 73.00 handle could interrupt the drop to the 72.49 area, where the 50-day SMA and 23.6% Fibo reside.

Summarizing, the short-term bias is neutral. However, a decisive break above 74.48 would turn the bias neutral-to-positive, whereas above 76.27 swing peak would shift the medium-term view to a neutral one.


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