Technical Analysis – EURCHF remains cautiously negative in medium-term

Technical Analysis – EURCHF remains cautiously negative in medium-term

Technical Analysis – EURCHF remains cautiously negative in medium-term

Marios Hadjikyriacos, XM Investment Research Desk

EURCHF remains on a soft footing, trading firmly below both its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (MAs), which keeps the broader outlook cautiously negative. That said, a decisive break below the August lows of 1.1180 is required to signal that the broader downtrend is back in force.

Short-term oscillators mostly support a negative bias. The RSI is below 50 and pointing lower, though the MACD has just crossed above its red trigger line; a signal that negative momentum may be fading a little.

Further declines could encounter immediate support around 1.2225, the December 11 trough, before the 1½-year low of 1.1180 comes into view. Even lower, the 1.1130 zone would attract attention, marked by the peak of May 2016.

On the other hand, resistance to advances may be found initially at 1.1340, the inside swing low of October 26. The next obstacle to the upside may be the 50-day SMA at 1.1365, where a bullish violation could turn the picture to a more neutral one, setting the stage for a test of 1.1435 – this being the top of November 16.

In short, as long as the pair remains below the 50-day MA the outlook is cautiously negative, with a clear move under 1.1180 needed to turn it firmly bearish.

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