Technical Analysis – USDSEK drop ceases at swing low and 38.2% Fibonacci
Posted on October 10, 2019 at 3:29 pm GMT
Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk
USDSEK buyers emerged around the 9.82 – 9.83 support region denying the bears further losses. Buyers are attempting to keep the positive picture in place something also backed by the upward sloping simple moving averages (SMAs) and the uptrend line.
The short-term oscillators reflect weakening negative momentum. The MACD has distanced itself under its red trigger line, and holds slightly above the zero line, while the RSI is in bearish territory and has turned back up before reaching the 30-level.
If the bulls manage to reverse the price back up, initial resistance could come from the resistance region of 9.87 – 9.89, with the former being the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 9.5820 to 9.9630. Climbing above the 50-period SMA at 9.88 and the 9.89 resistance, the pair could come to test the 9.92 inside swing low. If buying orders persist, the fresh peak of 9.9630 -a level not seen in more than 17 years- could apply some pressure ahead of the 9.99 and 10.00 resistance barriers.
To the downside, if the sellers retake the wheel and steer the price below the swing low of 9.83 -from early in October- and the 38.2% Fibo of 9.82, price could find some friction from the 100-day SMA at 9.80 on its way to the uptrend line. A breach of the uptrend line and nearby 50.0% Fibo of 9.77 could bring the 200-day into play.
Overall, the short-term bias remains bullish. However, a breach below 9.82 could turn the bias neutral-to-bearish, while a break of the uptrend line would confirm the shift to a bearish bias.